gps

Guess? Inc. (NYSE: GES), a fashion retailer that competes in the mall with companies like Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Gap (NYSE: GPS), and JCPenney (NYSE: JCP), told the market how it did in Q1 on Thursday after the bell. As I write this during the early afternoon on Friday, shares of Guess? are up well over 6% on very good volume. Was there something to this earnings report?

I didn't think the numbers were particularly fetching. Revenues declined nearly 10%, thanks in part to the effects of currency translation (maybe that should be no thanks). Earnings per share came in at $0.35, a massive 30% decline. And same-store sales in North America dipped 10% (take out currency, and the dip was 6%, which still wasn't good).

Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS - option chain) stock is falling today after the company reported its same-store sales fell 6% in May, worse than the 5% decline predicted by analysts. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on GPS.

This morning, GPS opened at $17.50. So far today the stock has hit a low of $16.74 and a high of $17.70. As of 11:50, GPS is trading at $16.77, down $1.46 (-8.0%). The chart for GPS looks bearish and S&P gives GPS a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell ranking.

J. Crew Group (NYSE: JCG), a retailer that shares space at the mall with Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Gap (NYSE: GPS), and American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), has, as a stock, been doing extremely well.

As of this writing, shares of J. Crew have doubled over the last six months. It certainly hasn't hurt the company to see that the Obama family wears its clothes.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• AnnTaylor Stores Corp. (NYSE: ANN) reported a smaller-than-expected Q1 loss as sales slumped.
• Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE: BKS) smaller-than-expected Q1 net loss sent shares higher.
• Children's Place Retail Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: PLCE) solid Q1 results were in line with expectations.
• Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS) posted higher-than-expected Q1 results but same-store sales fell.
• Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) lower Q1 earnings beat expectations and lower revenue was in line.

Today felt like one of those slow long pre-holiday trading days where many gainers and losers were seen with low volume. There was no real economic data to absorb and no real earnings reports to pick apart.

That let us only react to a small recovery from the fears that the US could ultimately have the same credit rating fears that were brought up about England yesterday. Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 8,278.04 -14.09 (-0.17%)
S&P 500 887.33 -1.00 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,693.91 -1.34 (-0.08%)

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades

Trendy retailer Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) announced Thursday that its first-quarter earnings declined compared to a year ago. The khaki king's earnings were pulled lower by poor sales due to the economic crisis. That said, the company's quarterly earnings topped the consensus estimate.

For the quarter, Gap earned 31 cents per share, down from 34 cents a year ago, but a penny better than analyst projections. Sales for the quarter dropped to $3.13 billion, matching the Street's expected $3.14 billion.

Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD), the retailer that runs stores such as Bath & Body Works, Pink, and the sexy Victoria's Secret, issued its Q1 numbers after the bell on Wednesday.

The bottom line didn't look bad. Not that it looked great, mind you. The company earned 1 cent per share. The fact that there was any profit at all was big news. According to analysts, a loss of 3 cents per share was more likely.

The revenue picture was not so pretty, however. Net sales dropped by 10%. And same-store sales decreased 7%. I guess buying lingerie isn't a top priority during a time when jobs are being cut and consumers look in terror upon their 401(k) balances.

JCPenney (NYSE: JCP), whose colleagues at the mall include Gap (NYSE: GPS), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), and Kohl's (NYSE: KSS), brought out its Q1 earnings report from the backroom on Friday. I can't call the numbers great by any stretch of the imagination. But the stock is up slightly as I write this, so I guess the market didn't have a hard time with them.

Net sales declined a little under 6%. Net income came in at $0.11 per share. This represented an enormous drop compared to last year's performance of $0.54 per share. There was, however, a tax/pension issue going on that amounted to $0.32 per share. Still, according to this source, JCPenney beat expectations by a penny. Another source I checked said that the retailer met expectations. Either way, I think you can qualify the quarter as basically in-line.

Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) was not hot at all in the first quarter. It's funny. You hear about the recession coming to an end this year, about things getting better, and then you check out some retail stats and you begin to wonder.

Anyway, Abercrombie, which shares space at the mall with names like J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), Gap (NYSE: GPS), and Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), saw its top line decline by 24%. Same-store sales for the company's entire operations dropped 30%. Same-store sales at the Abercrombie & Fitch brand itself plunged 26%. Earnings per share took a dive of more than 50% to $0.31. It should be noted, however, that there is a pending non-cash charge that will be added to these results at a later time.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer is seeing signs of a coming boom, but he's still being cautious here.

If you had to define the early cycle, if you had to outline what stocks should be soaring coming out of a recession into a boom and which ones should be faltering, you would have to say the action in this market in the last month is the quintessential behavioral pattern.

What are the components of the early cycle? First, it's the homebuilders. As is typical coming out of a recession, the stocks precede the bottom of housing. That's exactly what's happening with the lowest permits and highest affordability and best mortgage rates and massive inventory. Everywhere, except on Wall Street reporting, the bottom is bursting out. When you read the lead story in the Sunday Philadelphia Inquirer, and it is all about the thousands of prospective homebuyers heading south to pick up condos and homes for half of what they were worth two years ago -- or even less -- and you know that virtually no one has broken ground in the Sunshine State in a year, you can bet that the bottom's actually behind us. This housing market has wiped out all but the most stable private builders and even the public ones are merging as we know from Pulte (NYSE: PHM) (Cramer's Take) and Centex (NYSE: CTX) (Cramer's Take). So, in the next cycle, you can see some profitability developing year over year even though the new homes don't have much margin because the foreclosed homes next door are going for a song. And don't believe this won't change the dynamic of future foreclosures. In most areas, rent is higher than the interest on mortgages, so you will find that second or third job needed to stay in your home. The incentive structure's radically different than a year ago.

Yesterday, trendy retailer Gap (NYSE: GPS) announced that it will reduce its board to 10 members from 13, and it will cut the compensation for the remaining board members.

The three board members who will not return are Howard Behar, Penelope Hughes, and Doris Fisher. Behar and Hughes agreed to not seek re-election at Gap's annual shareholders meeting, which takes place in May. Fisher is the company's co-founder and will step down from the board and accept a role of honorary lifetime director.

In addition to the three members leaving the board, Glenn Murphy -- the firm's chairman and CEO -- has voluntarily cut his salary by 15%. Furthermore, GPS has eliminated merit-based salary increases for most of its headquarters employees.

American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), whose mall colleagues include Gap (NYSE: GPS), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), and Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN), posted Q4 earnings on Wednesday.

The Christmas season was a difficult one for the chain. Sales decreased 9%, and same-store sales declined a whopping 16%. Ouch, sorry to hear that, American Eagle. Earnings came in at 19 cents per share, meeting analysts expectations.

It's the same old story: to move merchandise, things had to be marked down. And that affected profits. Big time.

J. Crew Group (NYSE: JCG) issued a Q4 report that the market seemed to like. The retailer posted a loss of 22 cents per share on Tuesday after the bell. As I said in my earnings preview, Wall Street was bracing for a loss of 27 cents per share. That five-penny beat helped to send J. Crew's shares up by well over 10% in the after-hours session.

I think the buying was a bit overdone. Sure, I'll give credit where credit is due. Management did beat the analysts and their precious earnings models. How much credit should I give beyond that?

Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN), as one might have expected, didn't report a great fourth quarter. It's a fashionable retailer, so you can imagine that consumers, who aren't in the mood to spend top dollar on clothes and accessories, forced the company to do a lot of discounting.

Sales, though, were healthy. The top line increased by 9%, and same-store sales at the Urban Outfitters brand rose 3%. Unfortunately, Q4 wasn't so kind to the Anthropologie and Free People brands. Their comps were down 6% and 13%, respectively. And the company missed earnings estimates. The call was for 28 cents per share, but the retailer was only able to deliver 24 cents per share.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Lubrizol (NYSE: LZ) to Buy from Hold on valuation as they believe economic weakness is already priced into the stock. Despite upgrading, Citigroup lowered their target price to $32 from $36.
  
• UBS believes AT&T (NYSE: T) consensus estimates are beatable and that the 7.1% dividend yield is safe. Additionally, the firm said a strike is possible when the unionized wireline employee contract expires on April 4th but expects the company to succeed in lowering healthcare benefits. Shares were upgraded to Buy from Neutral.
  
• Friedman Billings upgraded Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) to Market Perform from Underperform as they believe guidance appropriately reset expectations and that the risk/reward is neutral at current levels. The firm lowered their target price to $16 from $17. Shares were also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies after the Q1 results to reflect better-than-expected cost cuts and an attractive risk/reward at current levels.
• Lousiana Pacific (NYSE: LPX) was raised to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC.
  
• OmniVision (NASDAQ: OVTI) was upgraded at Baird to Neutral from Underperform.