gps

There's a chill in the air and a slight up-tick in confidence. Holiday discounts are coming a bit earlier, too. For retailers, this has been a great combination, leading to the second consecutive month in which retail sales increased.

This follows more than a year of drops. Consumers aren't going crazy, but they are loosening their wallets a little bit. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy, and the coming holiday season is where the action is -- for the retail sector and, consequently, for everyone else.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that from a chart perspective, this could be about the greatest bull market in history.

Chart to chart to chart this weekend and all I see, except for a couple of health maintenance, medical device and drug companies plus some fertilizer stocks, is just a remarkable and, yes, unheralded run in every single group.

Some of them are of the pure recovery style: every oil and gas, now including refinery, as the crude price inches back to $100 and natural gas has started its way back up; the life insurers that were left for dead when we decided that all commercial mortgages would be destroyed taking them with the bad loans; the overly-indebted companies like Textron (NYSE: TXT) (Cramer's Take) that have roared back without any real support from anyone.

But others are just monumental. Anything paper or wood or glass. These aren't quitting.

Back in the late 1960s -- when the hippie movement was in full force -- Donald Fisher started a blue jeans store in San Francisco. Yes, it eventually turned into a retail empire, called The Gap (NYSE: GPS). The company now has more than 3,100 stores and $14.5 billion in revenues.

Unfortunately, Fisher died over the weekend. He was 81.

When Fisher started his business, he had no experience in the retail trade. Instead, his background was in real estate.

But this was no problem. Like any good entrepreneur, he saw a mega opportunity -- that is, a change in the fashion habits of the masses. After all, the Gap stands for "generation gap." And the Baby Boomers were certainly ripe customers -- and willing to pay.

Retail sales were down for the twelfth month in a row in August, according to an Associated Press report. Consumers stayed focused on what they need rather than what they want, as unemployment remains high and even those employed worry about the future of their jobs.

The silver lining, though, is that the coming holiday season might not be as bad as many thought.

Some retailers actually showed gains. TJMaxx (NYSE: TJX) and Old Navy, a Gap (NYSE: GPS) company, for example, saw year-over-year sales increases, though upscale stores generally sustained declines. The action on the discount side could be an early sign that the consumer is ready to play.

American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), a fashion retailer that competes with Gap (NYSE: GPS) and Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), didn't do too well in Q2. Total sales went down 5%, and earnings per share on a GAAP basis fell a most awful 50% to 14 cents. According to Bloomberg, the adjusted earnings of 12 cents per share came up short of analyst expectations by three pennies.

Same-store sales hit the double-digit mark to the downside: they decreased 10%. Not a good number for this kind of business. Promotional markdowns helped to drive the gross margin down. The operating margin also took a hit.

Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), a retailer that competes with Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), and Gap (NYSE: GPS), posted what I thought was a superb second-quarter earnings summary on Thursday after the bell. The figures were very appealing, and I would've expected a better after-hours reaction by the stock to the news. Then again, the market can never be predicted. It will do whatever the heck it wants.

Net sales increased 20%. Not bad, am I right? Wait, check this out. Earnings per share came in at 57 cents, compared to the 31 cents reported in the year-ago quarter. According to Reuters, that was a penny ahead of expectations. But that penny beat on the bottom line isn't what impresses me the most. It's the strong per-share profit expansion that I find compelling.

Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD), whose colleagues include Gap (NYSE: GPS) and Hanesbrands (NYSE: HBI), is one sexy company. It operates the Victoria's Secret chain of stores among other concepts. However, it's been having trouble increasing sales and income during the recession -- like every other retailer out there, of course. But the stock has been strong, and the bulls have yet more evidence that their thesis on the business might be justified.

Limited Brands reported second quarter results Wednesday after the close. Its adjusted earnings were 19 cents per share versus 27 cents per share in the comparable period last year. Total sales dropped 9.5%, and same-store revenues collapsed 9%. With numbers like those, where do I get the idea that the bulls might have a case?

Analyst upgrades:

• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Popular (NASDAQ: BPOP) to Outperform from Market Perform as it believes the issuance of new common stock in exchange for outstanding preferred and trust preferred stock is a net positive. The firm has a $3.50 target on the stock.
• Merriman upgraded Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) to Buy from Neutral as if finds the currrent valuation compelling and believes the company should directly benefit from improving IT budgets. The firm thinks fair value is in the $9.11-$11.13 range.
• Kaufman Bros. upgraded Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) to Buy from Hold after its proprietary survey indicated the company is well positioned longer term. The firm finds the valuation on shares attractive at current levels and raised its target price to $53 from $48.
• Taleo (NASDAQ: TLEO) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney Montgomery.
• Boardwalk Pipeline (BWP) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Lloyds Banking (NYSE: LYG) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at RBS.

The Wall Street Journal reports (subscription required) that "As part of a joint promotion between Gap Stores Inc. (NYSE: GPS) and the Big Board, traders will be outfitted with 1969 Premium Jeans from the retailer. Gap executives will ring the closing bell Friday, remotely from the company's San Francisco headquarters."

That's right: jeans of the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. It's part of Gap's effort to revitalize its image by offering more premium quality jeans -- at better prices than market leaders like True Religion (NASDAQ: TRLG) and 7 for All Mankind.

Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) is such a funny stock story. The company reports what I thought was a quarter full of dire results, and the market still sends shares higher. They closed almost 4% higher, in fact, on Friday. I don't get it.

For the second quarter, sales decreased 23%, and the overall same-store sales statistic, which is a really important metric for retailers, sank 30%. A net loss of 30 cents per share was booked, mostly on the back of the discontinuation of the Ruehl business. Excluding the effect of the closure, Abercrombie made 8 cents per share, and that, according to Reuters, beat by a mile the expected loss of 7 cents per share.

Guess? Inc. (NYSE: GES), a fashion retailer that competes in the mall with companies like Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Gap (NYSE: GPS), and JCPenney (NYSE: JCP), told the market how it did in Q1 on Thursday after the bell. As I write this during the early afternoon on Friday, shares of Guess? are up well over 6% on very good volume. Was there something to this earnings report?

I didn't think the numbers were particularly fetching. Revenues declined nearly 10%, thanks in part to the effects of currency translation (maybe that should be no thanks). Earnings per share came in at $0.35, a massive 30% decline. And same-store sales in North America dipped 10% (take out currency, and the dip was 6%, which still wasn't good).

Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS - option chain) stock is falling today after the company reported its same-store sales fell 6% in May, worse than the 5% decline predicted by analysts. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on GPS.

This morning, GPS opened at $17.50. So far today the stock has hit a low of $16.74 and a high of $17.70. As of 11:50, GPS is trading at $16.77, down $1.46 (-8.0%). The chart for GPS looks bearish and S&P gives GPS a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell ranking.

J. Crew Group (NYSE: JCG), a retailer that shares space at the mall with Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Gap (NYSE: GPS), and American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), has, as a stock, been doing extremely well.

As of this writing, shares of J. Crew have doubled over the last six months. It certainly hasn't hurt the company to see that the Obama family wears its clothes.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• AnnTaylor Stores Corp. (NYSE: ANN) reported a smaller-than-expected Q1 loss as sales slumped.
• Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE: BKS) smaller-than-expected Q1 net loss sent shares higher.
• Children's Place Retail Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: PLCE) solid Q1 results were in line with expectations.
• Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS) posted higher-than-expected Q1 results but same-store sales fell.
• Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) lower Q1 earnings beat expectations and lower revenue was in line.

Today felt like one of those slow long pre-holiday trading days where many gainers and losers were seen with low volume. There was no real economic data to absorb and no real earnings reports to pick apart.

That let us only react to a small recovery from the fears that the US could ultimately have the same credit rating fears that were brought up about England yesterday. Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 8,278.04 -14.09 (-0.17%)
S&P 500 887.33 -1.00 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,693.91 -1.34 (-0.08%)

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